TORONTO _ Global warming threatens Canada's frigid far north, where the expected thaw could displace wildlife, increase pollution and destabilize infrastructure across the Canadian sub-Arctic, a new study warns.
The study, released by Canada's environment department, expresses particular concern for the region's indigenous people, the Inuit, who could find their hunting prey out of reach, their water supplies contaminated and their coastal communities subjected to erosion from seas no longer covered by ice.
``Northern indigenous people, already one of the more vulnerable segments of Canadian society, would be affected by ecosystem shifts that may be outside the limits of historical experience,'' says the wide-ranging climate-change report, the Canada Country Study.
Even the possibility that a major ice-melt could open up the Northwest Passage to east-west shipping would not offset the many perils such a thaw would create, says the report compiled by dozens of government, academic and industry experts.
There is nothing hypothetical about climate change in the far north. In the northwest corner of the Northwest Territories, where the Mackenzie River flows into the Beaufort Sea, temperatures this year have been 9 degrees above normal -- among the highest jumps anywhere during this unusually warm year.
``Northerners are obviously looking for ways to adapt,'' said Helen Fast, a Manitoba-based expert who co-wrote a chapter of the study focusing on the far north.
``They're probably ahead of us southerners because they see the problem as a reality. It's an immediate concern.''
Subsistence hunting plays a vital role in many Inuit communities, sometimes accounting for half the local economy and providing much of the protein in Inuit diets.
The warming trend will reduce the size and stability of ice fields where much of the hunting occurs, and could push many species out of traditional habitats. Eventually, forests could spread much farther north, taking range land from some of the world's biggest caribou herds.
``Hunters, fishers and trappers depend on detailed local knowledge of animal distributions and behavior, snowfall patterns, and timing of freeze-up and breakup (of ice),'' says the study. ``Climate change can play havoc with the use of such knowledge.''
If less fresh meat is available, the Inuit would likely compensate with less nutritious food, increasing the risk of obesity, diabetes and vitamin deficiencies, the study warns.
The thaw has already affected animals. Fast said mammals' fur has dropped in quality as the temperature warms and a Canadian Wildlife Service scientist reported last week that polar bears around Hudson Bay are 90 to 220 pounds lighter than 30 years ago, apparently because earlier ice-melting has meant less chance to gorge on seal pups.
The thaw of the rock-hard permafrost under the tundra could wreak widespread chaos. The study suggests that a warming trend could push the edge of the permafrost zone 300 miles further north, causing ``massive slumping of terrain'' in the thawed area.
This could destabilize roads, bridges, buildings and oil pipelines, disrupting transportation and possibly entailing huge repair and replacement costs.
It would likely increase the danger of contaminated water resources, since bacteria would be able to move through thawed soil. There also would be a pollution danger from ponds at mine sites; many contain toxic waste and are situated in permafrost beds that until now were assumed to be impermeable.
Fast said some coastal communities already are noticing effects of erosion as the ocean -- covered by ice for shorter periods -- generates greater wave action. In Tuktoyaktuk, a town near the mouth of the Mackenzie River, several buildings have been lost to erosion, she said.
On the plus side, major ice-melting could free up the Northwest Passage for shipping. This could fuel a boom in oil exploration if tankers were able to reach the area reliably.
But even this scenario has a potential catch. The study notes that although Canada claimed the Northwest Passage as an internal Canadian waterway in 1973, the claim is not recognized by the United States.
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